Euro in Focus as ECB Announces Interest Rates, Updates Economic Outlook (Euro Open)

The Euro takes center stage with the European Central Bank set to announce interest rates and update their economic outlook for the Euro Zone. UK Services PMI and EZ Retail Sales are also on tap.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia’s Trade Deficit Widens as Stimulus Boosts Imports
• Euro, British Pound Range-Bound in Overnight Trading

Critical Levels



The Euro was confined to a narrow 30-pip range in the overnight session, trading sideways above 1.4260. The British Pound followed suit, oscillating in a 40 pip band above 1.6240.

Asia Session Highlights



Australia’s Trade Balance deficit widened much more than economists expected in July, showing a shortfall of –A$1.5 billion, the largest in 15 months. Preliminary forecasts ahead of the release had called for a –A$0.9 billion result. The previous month’s reading was also revised down to –A$0.54 billion from the –A$0.44 billion originally reported. The gap expanded as imports surged 4%, driven by a 21% increase in oil shipments. Imports of consumer goods advanced 2%, owing to overseas purchases of vehicles, food, and beverages. Exports fell 1%, led by a hefty 27% drop in cross-border gold sales. On the face of it, the data paints an encouraging picture of the Australian economy: rising oil demand (primarily in the form of industrial fuel and lubricants) points to an increase in production and hints at possible improvement in the employment situation while the increase in consumer demand is good news for the spending climate and thereby overall economic growth. However, not all is as rosy as it seems: much like yesterday’s surprisingly strong second-quarter GDP result, the surge in Australian demand evident in today’s data likely owes the government’s ample fiscal package, including A$20 billion in cash handouts to households and A$22 billion in infrastructure spending. Indeed, as we have previously suggested, the big question going forward will be whether the now buoyant Australian economy can maintain momentum once the flow of stimulus cash dries up.

Euro Session: What to Expect



The European Central Bank will take center stage in the coming trading session, with Jean-Claude Trichet and company expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1% for the fourth consecutive month. The announcement’s market-moving potential rests on the bank’s update to its economic outlook for the Euro Zone, with any downward revisions likely to weigh heavily on the single currency. The currency bloc’s problems are well-documented. Deflation is becoming an increasingly real concern as CPI figures continue to print in negative territory. Unemployment continues to rise, threatening the outlook for spending and thereby overall economic growth. In fact, the pace of contraction in Retail Sales is set to accelerate to -2.2% in July. Finally, the banking sector is yet to come to terms with an estimated $1.1 trillion in unrealized sub-prime related losses (according to the IMF), a hit that could be compounded by defaults or devaluations in some of the newly-minted central European EU member states that are struggling with meeting their obligations to Western European lenders. Indeed, it is perhaps the prospect of these very losses that has undermined the ECB’s attempt to stimulate economic activity by allowing overnight borrowing costs to hover well below the 1% target level between 0.5 and 0.3 percent since June, with lending to the private sector growing at a record low 0.6% in July. The recent batch of economic indicators has painted an optimistic picture, boosted by a global wave of fiscal stimulus, broad inventory restocking efforts, and firming financial markets. How this will factor into the ECB’s world view rests entirely on whether the bank sees the current stabilization as the beginning of a sustainable recovery or a temporary reprieve.

In the UK, Services PMI is set to rise to 54.0 in August from 53.2.0 in the previous month, showing that the industry expanded at the fastest pace since February 2008. However, the analogous metrics for the manufacturing and construction sectors both disappointed, suggesting rising unemployment may be starting to become a meaningful drag on leading indicators and opening the door for a downside surprise in today’s report.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro in Focus as ECB Announces Interest Rates, Updates Economic Outlook (Euro Open)

The USD Benefits as Wall Street Slides

The greenback firmed on Tuesday as share prices fell, prompting investors to shed perceived riskier currencies. Despite better than expected numbers from the Institute for Supply Management, shares on Wall Street showed only muted enthusiasm to the data and quickly lost ground, lifting the U.S dollar, which has tended to be used as a safe haven against losses in equities. Ahead of the U.S. jobs data later today, traders said players were anxious about any negative surprises. As the market has become less sensitive to positive surprises from the U.S economic data, the effect of any weak figures would be bigger than the effect of any positive numbers.



USD - Dollar Rises on Optimistic Manufacturing Data

The U.S dollar rose against most of its major currency pairs yesterday as sharp losses in global stock markets offset stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data and boosted the greenback's safe-haven appeal. As a result, the USD finished yesterday trading session 150 pips higher against the EUR at the1.4216 level. The greenback also saw bullishness against the GBP and closed at 1.6155.

The main factors effecting Dollar volatility yesterday were the releases of optimistic U.S manufacturing data and Pending Home Sales figures. The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in August for the first time in 19 months, while home sales contract hit a two-year high in July, helping lead the economy out of the worst recession and thus boosted the demand for the Dollar. Factories and builders, which have accounted for half of all the jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007, may keep growing in coming months as sales rise.

Traders will be keeping a close eye on U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change data due at 12:15 GMT, which is expected to decrease to -250K from -371k. Special attention should also be given to the Crude Oil inventory which is expected to decrease from previous reading. Investors pay close attention to this figure as it has a strong correlation with the value of the U.S. Dollar.

EUR - EUR Erases Gains After High Jobless Figures

The EUR was little changed, erasing earlier gains, after figures showing Europe's manufacturing industry continued to contract in August stoked investor concern that the global recession has further to run. The EUR fell against the USD, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.4220. Despite positive data on Tuesday that showed Euro-Zone purchasing managers' index (PMI) rise and German unemployment unexpectedly fell in August, the EUR failed to make headway on the data as falls in equities weighed.

The Sterling erased its early gains against the U.S dollar and the EUR after an unexpected dip in UK manufacturing activity in August, stoking concerns about the pace of recovery in the British economy. The GBP was down 0.8% at $1.6152 and was little changed against the EUR at 88.04 pence.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the Euro-Zone is the Revised GDP at 9:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to be unchanged from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the EUR in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow the Construction PMI figures coming out of Britain at 8:30 GMT, and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figures coming out of the U.S. at 12:15 GMT as these results may set the EUR's main currency crosses going into today's trading.

JPY - The Yen Spikes to a 7 Week High

The JPY experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The Japanese yen traded near a 7 week high against the Dollar amid speculation asset prices are overblown, boosting demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency.

The Yen was close to its strongest level versus the U.S dollar in more than a month after Asian shares slumped and CIT Group Inc. deferred interest payments on subordinated bonds. The Yen tends to gain in times of financial turmoil as Japan's trade surplus reduces reliance on foreign capital, while the Dollar benefits from its status as the world's main reserve currency.

Traders expect the Yen to continue benefiting for the rest of the week amid growing concern that any more pullback in equities could be a further drag on a global economic recovery.

Crude Oil - Crude Declines 3% As Stocks Drop and USD Strengthens

Crude Oil experienced another day of depreciation as prices fell nearly 3% to $68.04 in this morning's early trading session. Oil prices traded down for the second straight day yesterday as economic concerns sent investors into safer havens, outweighing positive U.S. manufacturing and home sales data. The declines came after U.S. stocks dropped as renewed worries about the health of the U.S. financial sector shook investor confidence.

As for today, the Crude Oil inventories figures will be released. Expectations show a drop to -0.8M from last week's of 0.2MM. Traders can, and should, expect wide market volatility around the 14:00 GMT release of these inventories figures because of Crude Oil's recent importance to today's market.

Article Source - The USD Benefits as Wall Street Slides

Australian Dollar Gains on GDP But Stock Drop Limits Upside (Euro Open)

The Australian Dollar pushed higher as the economy grew more than economists expected in the second quarter but failed to build meaningful momentum as stocks dropped nearly 2% in Asian trading, weighing down the risk-linked currency. Euro Zone GDP and UK Construction PMI are on tap in European trading hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australian Dollar Gains on GDP But Stock Drop Limits Upside
• Euro, British Pound Range-Bound in Overnight Trading

Critical Levels



The Euro was confined to a narrow range 35-pip range above 1.4190 in overnight trading. The British Pound followed suit, oscillating in a 60-pip band below 1.6180.

Asia Session Highlights



Australia’s Gross Domestic Product grew 0.6% in the second quarter, topping economists’ expectations of a 0.2% result. The annual pace of economic growth advanced to 0.6%, rebounding from the 18-year low of 0.3% in the three months to March. The details of the report appear encouraging: private consumption and investment both advanced, the former by the largest margin since the fourth quarter of 2007 and the latter by the most since the three months through September of last year. Still, the acceleration seems to be a testament to the effects of the government’s ample fiscal package, including A$20 billion in cash handouts to households and A$22 billion in infrastructure spending, and the big question going forward will be whether the economy can maintain momentum once the flow of stimulus cash dries up. The Australian Dollar surged 50 pips against its US counterpart in the hour following the release but failed to meaningfully build on that momentum as stocks dropped nearly 2% in Asian trading, weighing down the risk-linked currency. Indeed, a trade-weighted average of the Australian unit’s value is now 95.6% correlated with the MSCI World Stock Index.

Euro Session: What to Expect



The second revision of the Euro Zone’s Gross Domestic Product is set to confirm that the economy shrank -0.1% in the second quarter. The annual pace of contraction is expected to be revised slightly higher from -4.6% to -4.7%, but this is unlikely to be enough to stir the currency markets. Rather, traders will be looking at the expected upward revisions to the Household Consumption and Gross Fixed Capital components of the metric. An increasing number of market observers (ourselves included) are skeptical about whether the recent upswing in economic data around the globe is sustainable after the flow of government stimulus cash dries up. To this effect, measures of consumption and investment are going to be critical at this point in gauging whether a meaningful rebound in private demand can pick up where fiscal measures leave off.

In the UK, Construction PMI is set to rise to 48.0 in August from 47.0 in the previous month, showing that the industry shrank at the slowest pace in at least 13 months. However, the analogous metric for the manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined yesterday, suggesting rising unemployment may be starting to become a meaningful drag on leading indicators and opening the door for a downside surprise in today’s report.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Australian Dollar Gains on GDP But Stock Drop Limits Upside (Euro Open)