Daily FX Updates and Chart Analysis of AUD/USD

GBP

The Bank of England (BOE) released the quarterly inflation report on Wednesday which showed that the level of inflation has been receding more than anticipated. The report came with a comment from BOE governor, Mervyn King, that based on this information, further action is necessary to ease the economy’s continued decline. This news sent the Pound Sterling down against the Euro and US Dollar. At 4PM GMT, the Pound was down 1 ½% to .8996 versus the Euro and down over 1% to 1.4390 against the dollar.

USD

Investors and traders were still digesting the nearly 2 Trillion Dollar bank bailout plan announced by US treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner. Coupled with the US Congressional stimulus package that President Obama has been pushing through the legislature, this brings the total amount that the US is investing in stemming the economic decline to nearly 3 Trillion Dollars. Many applaud the US for their steadfast, all-in approach to helping the economy but question the size and scope of the plans and America’s ability to actually afford it. The Dollar fell ½ of a percent to the Yen to 90.26 and ¾ of a percent against the Euro to 1.2943.

AUD / NZD

The Australian and New Zealand dollars has been the beneficiary of the US, UK and Euorzone’s woes lately and this momentum continued on Wednesday. The Aussie currency rose over ½ of a percent against the USD to .659, ¼ of a percent against the Euro to 1.9682 and 1% to the CAD to .8217. The Kiwi currency (NZD) was up 1% to the dollar at .5273, ¼ of a percent versus the Euro to 2.4637 and a big 1 ½% to the GBP at 2.7368.

Chart AUD(Blue); NZD(orange) against USD – 5 day change.

The “Down Under Dollars” have benefitted significantly in the past five days against a host of currencies. The chart below shows a 5 day moving average for the currencies against the US Dollar. As the US’s plans continue to be revealed and traders continue ther analyses, the fundamentals and technical’s seem to favor the AUD and NZD in the near future.

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Forex Updates

Updates of Forex Market

RBNZ is up tonight and a 150 bps chop to the rate is expected, to bring the cash target to 5.00%. NZDUSD is hovering not far away from the 0.5000 level and AUDNZD has broken back up above its 200-day moving average. There's nothing to like about NZD these days - a currency sporting thin liquidity that needs strong foreign investment to prop up its large current account deficit...and one that is quickly chopping its high interest rates quickly. It would seem a try at 0.5000 in NZDUSD is in the cards if we resume the sell-off in global equities.

We remain in these trading ranges, but would like to see a break to new levels of strength in the USD and JPY by the end of the week to confirm our view that this is still the side of least resistance. Recognizing the treachery of the ranges, we need to set the levels that would cause us to neutralize our short term views. For example, if EURUSD manages to scratch above 1.2900 and GBPUSD above 1.5240, that would force us to neutralize the short term view of more USD strength.

Chart: EUR/CHF

The recent EURCHF sell-off appears to have been a one-day wonder so far, but we suspect that the pair could resume the sell-off in the coming days as the ECB meeting comes and goes. Look for a close back below the 21-day moving average (now around 1.5200) and a retry through the rising trendline as a trigger that the sell-off is ready to resume. Key resistance comes in at the 1.5385 if the top isn't already in here.